Independence referendum

East Timorese independence referendum in 1999

South Sudanese independence referendum in 2011

An independence referendum is a type of referendum in which the citizens of a territory decide whether the territory should become an independent sovereign state. An independence referendum that results in a vote for independence does not always ultimately result in independence.

Procedure

An independence referendum typically arises first after political success for nationalists of a territory. This could come in the election of politicians or parties with separatist policies, or from pressure from nationalist organisations.

Negotiations

Negotiations for the terms of an independence referendum may take place between the nationalists and the government which exercises sovereignty over the territory. If terms can be agreed, then the independence referendum can be held with its result binding, and respected by the international community. Independence referendums can be held without the consent of a national or the federal governments, then the international community will rely on several other factors, e.g. were the local people oppressed by the central government or not, to decide if the result can be recognized or not.

Various issues can be discussed in negotiations, such as the date and timing of the poll, as well as voter eligibility. For these instances, common electoral practice is often widely used, although there can be deviations, as seen with the lowering of the voting age for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.

Other issues to be negotiated include what question or questions should be on the ballot, and what the voting options could be. Independence referendums can offer options of greater autonomy as well as, or instead of, the status quo. They can also put forward other constitutional questions to ballot. The questions that referendums ask may be revised if parties involved in negotiations consider them to be too leading.

Negotiations notably need to address what would make a result binding. For some independence referendums, a simple majority is required for one option. In other cases, a quota can be used, where a certain percentage of the vote or the electorate needs to be in favour of an option for it to be binding.

Donbass status referendum in 2014 was rejected as illegal by the Ukrainian government or by any UN-member states

Successful negotiations can be hard to achieve for nationalists, as governments can be reluctant to give up sovereignty. For example, nationalists planned to hold a referendum in Catalonia in 2014, but met opposition from the Spanish government. As a result, the referendum that went ahead was unofficial and non-binding.

Aftermath

In the event of a vote for independence, there may be negotiations on the terms of secession for the territory from the sovereign state. A declaration of independence for a new state is then made, and international recognition can follow, as well as membership of international organisations such as the United Nations. In cases involving non-binding referendums, this can lead to a unilateral declaration of independence, and therefore partially recognised or self-proclaimed states, like the Donbass status referendums.

In the event of a vote against independence, there may still be a strong nationalist movement and calls for there to be a rerun of the independence referendum. For example, after two referendums in Quebec, the Parti Québécois has continued to raise the prospect of holding another referendum,^[1] and the Scottish National Party has said that there should be a repeat of the 2014 referendum now that the United Kingdom has left the European Union.

Past independence referendums

Proposed state	Year	Former state	Majority for independence	Independence	Recognition	Notes
Chile	1817	Captaincy General of Chile (part of the Spanish Empire)	Yes	Yes	No	Chile would declare independence in 1818 and would secure independence following the Chilean War of Independence.
Liberia	1846	American Colonization Society	Yes	Yes	Yes
Maryland	1853	Maryland State Colonization Society	Yes	Yes	Yes
Norway	1905	Sweden–Norway	Yes	Yes	Yes	The referendum was on whether voters approved the ratified dissolution of the union between the two constitutional states.
Iceland	1918	Denmark	Yes	Yes	Yes
Western Australia	1933	Australia	Yes	No	No
Cambodia	1945	France	Yes	Yes	Yes
Mongolia	1945	China	Yes	Yes	Yes
Faroe Islands	1946	Denmark	Yes	No	No	The Declaration of Independence was annulled by Denmark
Saar	1955	France	No	No	Yes	Territory later transferred to West Germany
Cameroon	1958		No	No	Yes	Referendum on the new French constitution. A no vote would have led to independence.
Central African Republic	1958		No	No	Yes
Chad	1958		No	No	Yes
Comoros	1958		No	No	Yes
Republic of the Congo	1958		No	No	Yes
Dahomey	1958		No	No	Yes
Djibouti	1958		No	No	Yes
French Polynesia	1958		No	No	Yes
Gabon	1958		No	No	Yes
Guinea	1958		Yes	Yes	Yes
Ivory Coast	1958		No	No	Yes
Madagascar	1958		No	No	Yes
Mali	1958		No	No	Yes
Mauritania	1958		No	No	Yes
New Caledonia	1958		No	No	Yes
Niger	1958		No	No	Yes
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	1958		No	No	Yes
Senegal	1958		No	No	Yes
Upper Volta	1958		No	No	Yes
Samoa	1961	New Zealand	Yes	Yes	Yes
Algeria	1962	France	Yes	Yes	Yes
Malta	1964	United Kingdom	Yes	Yes	Yes
Rhodesia	1964		Yes	De facto	No	The majority black population could not vote in the referendum; consequently the result was rejected by the United Kingdom and internationally. This prompted the contested Unilateral Declaration of Independence.
Djibouti	1967	France	No	No	Yes
Puerto Rico	1967	United States	No	No	Yes
West Papua	1969	Indonesia	No	No	Yes	The question asked was whether West Papua wanted to give up its sovereignty to Indonesia. All 1,025 voters unanimously voted "yes" by show of hands.
Northern Mariana Islands	1969	United States	No	No	Yes	A majority voted for integration with Guam
Bahrain	1970	United Kingdom	Yes	Yes	Yes	The question was whether Bahrainis preferred annexation by Iran or independence.
Niue	1974	New Zealand	Majority for associated status	Associated status achieved	Yes	The referendum was on whether Niue should become an associated state of New Zealand. This status is sometimes considered to be independence.
Comoros	1974	France	Yes	Yes	Yes	The country declared independence on 6 July 1975, with Mayotte remaining under French control.
Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands	1975	United States	No	No	Yes	Only voters in what would become the Federated States of Micronesia voted for independence.
Guam	1976		No	No	Yes	A majority voted for an improved status quo
Aruba	1977	Netherlands	Yes	No	Yes	Plans for full independence were scrapped in 1994
Djibouti	1977	France	Yes	Yes	Yes
Nevis	1977	Saint Christopher-Nevis-Anguilla	Yes	No	No	Referendum organised by the Nevis Reformation Party but not recognised by the Saint Kitts and Nevis government.
Quebec	1980	Canada	No	No	Yes
Ciskei	1980	South Africa	Yes	De facto	Recognized by South Africa	Like other Bantustans, its independence was not internationally recognised.
Guam	1982	United States	No	No	Yes
Federated States of Micronesia	1983		Yes	Yes	Yes	Micronesia became an associated state of the United States
Marshall Islands	1983		No	No	Yes
Palau	1983		No	No	Yes	Voters approved the Compact of Free Association with the United States
	1984		No	No	Yes
Cocos (Keeling) Islands	1984	Australia	No	No	Yes
Falkland Islands	1986	United Kingdom	No	No	Yes
New Caledonia	1987	France	No	No	Yes
Slovenia	1990	Yugoslavia	Yes	Yes	Yes
Armenia	1991	Soviet Union	Yes	Yes	Yes
Azerbaijan	1991		Yes	Yes	Yes
Croatia	1991	Yugoslavia	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estonia	1991	Soviet Union	Yes	Yes	Yes
Georgia	1991		Yes	Yes	Yes
Kosovo	1991	Yugoslavia	Yes	No	Recognized by Albania
Latvia	1991	Soviet Union	Yes	Yes	Yes
Lithuania	1991		Yes	Yes	Yes
Macedonia	1991	Yugoslavia	Yes	Yes	Yes	Independence was achieved in 1991.
Nagorno-Karabakh	1991	Soviet Union	Yes	De facto	No	Led to de facto independence
Ukraine	1991		Yes	Yes	Yes
Transnistria	1991		Yes	De facto	No	Led to de facto independence
Gagauz Republic	1991		Yes	De facto[2]	No	Led to de facto independence. Gagauzia reintegrated Moldova in December 1994.
Turkmenistan	1991		Yes	Yes	Yes
Uzbekistan	1991		Yes	Yes	Yes
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1992	Yugoslavia	Yes	Yes	Yes
Montenegro	1992		No	No	Yes
South Ossetia	1992	Georgia	Yes	De facto	No	Led to de facto independence
Tatarstan	1992	Russia	Yes	Yes	No	Tatarstan reintegrated with Russia de facto in 1994, de jure in 2002
Eritrea	1993	Ethiopia	Yes	Yes	Yes
United States Virgin Islands	1993	United States	No	No	Yes
Puerto Rico	1993		No	No	Yes
Curaçao	1993	Netherlands	No	No	Yes	A majority voted for restructuring the Netherlands Antilles
Bonaire	1994		No	No	Yes	A majority voted for keeping the status quo.
Sint Maarten	1994		No	No	Yes
Saba	1994		No	No	Yes
Sint Eustatius	1994		No	No	Yes
Bermuda	1995	United Kingdom	No	No	Yes
Quebec	1995	Canada	No	No	Yes	"No" won by 1.16%.
Seborga	1995	Italy	Yes	No	No	Residents voted 304 to 4 for independence.[3] Regarded by most to be a micronation rather than a de facto state.
Anjouan	1997	Comoros	Yes	De facto	No	Anjouan remained de facto independent until 2001
Nevis	1998	Saint Christopher-Nevis-Anguilla	Yes	No	Yes	62% of voters approved of independence, but a 2/3 majority was required.
Puerto Rico	1998	United States	No	No	Yes
East Timor	1999	Indonesia	Yes	Yes	Yes	The referendum was organised by the United Nations; independence was achieved in 2002
Sint Maarten	2000	Netherlands	No	No	Yes	A majority voted for becoming a country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
Bonaire	2004		No	No	Yes	A majority voted for integration with the Netherlands
Saba	2004		No	No	Yes	A majority voted for direct constitutional ties with the Netherlands
Kurdistan	2005	Iraq	Yes	No	No
Curaçao	2005	Netherlands	No	No	Yes	A majority voted to become an Autonomous country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands
Sint Eustatius	2005		No	No	Yes	A majority voted for remaining part of the Netherlands Antilles
Montenegro	2006	Serbia and Montenegro	Yes	Yes	Yes
South Ossetia	2006	Georgia	Yes	De facto	No	The issue was whether South Ossetia should retain its de facto independent status
Transnistria	2006	Moldova	Yes	De facto	No	The issue was whether Transnistria should retain its de facto independent status
Tokelau	2006	New Zealand	Majority for associated status but Quorum not reached	Associated status not achieved	Yes	The referendum was on whether Tokelau should become an associated state of New Zealand. This status is sometimes considered to be independence. 60% of voters approved, but a 2/3 majority was required.
	2007		Majority for associated status but Quorum not reached	Associated status not achieved	Yes
South Sudan	2011	Sudan	Yes[4]	Yes	Yes	Independence was achieved on 9 July 2011.
Puerto Rico	2012	United States	No	No	Yes
Donetsk	2014	Ukraine	Yes[5]	Declared[6]	No	The issue was whether the Donetsk People's Republic should retain its de facto independent status. Only controls a portion of its claimed territory.
Lugansk	2014		Yes[5]	Declared[6]	No	The issue was whether the Luhnsk People's Republic should retain its de facto independent status. Only controls a portion of its claimed territory.
Veneto	2014	Italy	Yes	No	No	The referendum was conducted online and through self-organized voting booths by a private organization, Plebiscite 2013, without voter verification, and without the cooperation of the Italian national or Venetian regional governments. 89% of residents voted to split from Italy.[7] An official referendum on Venetian autonomy took place on 22 October 2017, with 98% voting in favor of special autonomy for Veneto.
Scotland	2014	United Kingdom	No	No	Yes
Catalonia	2014	Spain	Yes	No	No
Sint Eustatius	2014	Netherlands	No	No	Yes	A majority voted for autonomy within the Kingdom of the Netherlands, but low turnout invalidated the result.
South Brazil	2016	Brazil	Yes	No	No	Described as a "Plebisul", the turnout was only 2.91%.
Puerto Rico	2017	United States	No	No	Yes	If a majority of voters selected the "Independence/Free Association" option, another independence referendum between those two options would've been held. However, a majority of voters voted for U.S. statehood.
Kurdistan	2017	Iraq	Yes	No[8]	No	The referendum also took place in the disputed territories of Northern Iraq.
Catalonia	2017	Spain	Yes	No[9]	No	The Parliament of Catalonia unilaterally declared the formation of a Catalan Republic on 27 October 2017. The declaration was not recognized by the Government of Spain which continued to regard Catalonia as part of its sovereign territory and asserted direct control at the beginning of the workday on 30 October. On 31 October 2017 the Constitutional Court of Spain formally revoked the declaration with retroactive effect.[10]
South Brazil	2017	Brazil	Yes	No	No	Second edition of the referendum described as a "Plebisul", the turnout was only 1.72%.
New Caledonia	2018	France	No	No	Yes
Bougainville	2019	Papua New Guinea	Yes	Subject to negotiation[11]	Yes	Held between 23 November to 7 December 2019.[12][13] The vote was not binding and the Government of Papua New Guinea has the final say on what becomes of Bougainville.[14]
New Caledonia	2020	France	No	No[15]	Yes

Scheduled independence referendums

Proposed State	Date	Current state	Recognition	Notes
Chuuk	March 2022[16]	Micronesia	Yes	Was scheduled for March 2020, but the Chuuk State Attorney announced that the vote had been postponed.[16]

See also

Further reading

• Harguindéguy, J.-B., Sánchez, E. S., & Sánchez, A. S. (2021). "Why do central states accept holding independence referendums? Analyzing the role of state peripheries." Electoral Studies.
• Juve J. Cortés Rivera (2020) "Creating new states: the strategic use of referendums in secession movements." Territory, Politics, Governance

References